Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 April 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 776 km/s at 22/2043Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/1221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/0804Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7466 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (23 Apr), active to minor storm levels on day two (24 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 084
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 084/084/084
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  033/050
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  028/040-023/030-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%40%
Minor storm45%30%25%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm15%20%25%
Major-severe storm80%65%60%

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