Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 March 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 763 km/s at 30/0624Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 29/1823Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 29502 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 Mar) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 083 Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 083/082/082 90 Day Mean 29 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 022/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 020/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 020/024-015/020-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
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