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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/0456Z from Region 2645 (S09E44). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 781 km/s at 28/0711Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14903 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (29 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (30 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (31 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M15%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 084
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 084/084/083
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  034/052
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  026/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  022/030-020/024-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm25%25%15%

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