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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 25/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8330 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Mar), active to major storm levels on day two (28 Mar) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (29 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Mar 077
  Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        26 Mar 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Mar  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  016/025-028/040-024/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%15%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%35%15%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm30%10%25%

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