Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 March 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1151 km/s at 22/2117Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 23/1948Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-3 nT at 22/2157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 19135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 072 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 019/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 013/018-009/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 20% |
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