Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 March 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 10/2145Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14629 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Mar 070
  Predicted    12 Mar-14 Mar 070/070/072
  90 Day Mean        11 Mar 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  014/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Mar  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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