Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 February 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 22/1327Z from Region 2638 (N19E35). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 22/0441Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/1302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/1451Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 719 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Feb 083
  Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb 084/084/083
  90 Day Mean        22 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Feb  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  014/020-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm25%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm60%40%30%

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