Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 February 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 20/2149Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0325Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1109 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Feb, 24 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Feb 083
  Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb 083/083/083
  90 Day Mean        21 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Feb  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  012/015-016/020-013/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%60%45%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/23X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/28M7.0
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024M7.0
22001M6.17
32000M4.46
42022M4.0
52014M3.79
ApG
1200144G2
2200327G2
3199721G2
4201727G1
5200421G1
*since 1994

Social networks