Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 February 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 315 km/s at 15/2013Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/1730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1016 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Feb, 18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (17 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 075
  Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 075/075/074
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  010/010-011/012-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm35%45%20%

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