Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 February 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 13/2133Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2155Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 14/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1877 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 Feb, 17 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 075
  Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 076/076/075
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  009/012-009/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%30%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%30%40%

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