Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 February 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 11/0500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2343 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 076
  Predicted    12 Feb-14 Feb 076/078/078
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  006/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%30%
Major-severe storm 10%10%30%

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