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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 09/2332Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10414 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Feb 074
  Predicted    11 Feb-13 Feb 075/075/078
  90 Day Mean        10 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Feb  006/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 15%15%20%
Major-severe storm 05%05%20%

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