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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 670 km/s at 05/1806Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/0803Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/0738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20565 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Feb 073
  Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        05 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Feb  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  007/010-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm25%40%25%

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