Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 February 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 688 km/s at 04/0459Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22414 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Feb 074
  Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 074/072/072
  90 Day Mean        04 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  014/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Feb  010/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  007/010-007/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%30%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%20%35%

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