Viewing archive of Friday, 3 February 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 711 km/s at 03/0245Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 02/2240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/0553Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 20372 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), unsettled levels on
day two (05 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 075 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 018/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 013/014-011/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 20% |
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