Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 January 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 26/2032Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 26/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1282 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jan 083
  Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        26 Jan 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jan  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  011/015-011/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%10%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm40%40%10%

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