Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 January 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 651 km/s at 19/0320Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/2307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/2356Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 877 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jan 080
  Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  014/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  011/015-009/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%40%30%

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