Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 334 km/s at 16/2222Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1646Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/1322Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2711 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Jan), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jan 079
  Predicted    18 Jan-20 Jan 079/078/078
  90 Day Mean        17 Jan 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jan  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  017/025-015/020-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%45%30%
Minor storm 25%25%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm 20%30%25%
Major-severe storm 65%60%40%

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