Viewing archive of Monday, 16 January 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 342 km/s at 16/0418Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/0425Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3085 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 078
  Predicted    17 Jan-19 Jan 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  002/003
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  007/008-018/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%45%45%
Minor storm 05%25%25%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%05%10%
Minor storm 25%25%30%
Major-severe storm 20%70%60%

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