Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 January 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 14/0215Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4185 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Jan, 16 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 077
  Predicted    15 Jan-17 Jan 077/077/077
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 10%10%25%
Major-severe storm 15%15%20%

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