Viewing archive of Friday, 13 January 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 13/1703Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/1441Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1441Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7916 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jan 075
  Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        13 Jan 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

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