Viewing archive of Friday, 30 December 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 371 km/s at 29/2141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11342 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Dec), unsettled to active levels on day two (01 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Dec 074
  Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 075/075/074
  90 Day Mean        30 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Dec  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  015/020-015/018-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%30%
Major-severe storm55%30%40%

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