Viewing archive of Friday, 30 December 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 371 km/s at 29/2141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11342 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Dec), unsettled to
active levels on day two (01 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 074 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 075/075/074 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 015/020-015/018-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 30% | 40% |
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