Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 December 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (30 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 29/0449Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/1036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15202 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day three (01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Dec 073
  Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 072/075/075
  90 Day Mean        29 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Dec  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  009/010-018/024-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm10%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%55%30%

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