Viewing archive of Monday, 19 December 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 19/0645Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/1941Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 528 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (21 Dec) and active to minor storm levels on day three (22 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Dec 073
  Predicted    20 Dec-22 Dec 075/075/078
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  010/013
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  012/015-017/025-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm 10%25%25%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 30%25%25%
Major-severe storm 40%60%65%

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