Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 December 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 18/0245Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 17/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 17/2311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1565 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Dec, 20 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (21 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 072
  Predicted    19 Dec-21 Dec 073/073/073
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  010/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  011/015-012/015-017/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%40%
Minor storm 10%10%25%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm 30%30%25%
Major-severe storm 40%40%60%

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