Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 December 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 17/1552Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/1840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7553 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Dec 072
  Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        17 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Dec  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  007/008-011/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%40%40%

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