Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 December 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 667 km/s at 11/0032Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1819Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 24002 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Dec 071
  Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec 073/073/075
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  013/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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