Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 December 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 687 km/s at 08/1716Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 08/0146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 08/0823Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Dec), unsettled to active levels on day two (10 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Dec 075
  Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 075/075/070
  90 Day Mean        08 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Dec  016/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  016/020-014/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%20%20%

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