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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 01/2350Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1337Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9967 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (03 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Dec 084
  Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 082/082/078
  90 Day Mean        02 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  006/005-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%10%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm10%25%15%

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