Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 December 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 389 km/s at 01/0340Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
01/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
01/0421Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16571 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Dec, 03 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 085 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 005/005-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
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