Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 November 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 24/0831Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/1523Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 541 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Nov 079
  Predicted    25 Nov-27 Nov 079/079/080
  90 Day Mean        24 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  020/026
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  016/020-010/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%10%
Minor storm 10%10%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 20%20%10%

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