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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 775 km/s at 16/1514Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 16/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4699 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (17 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (18 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Oct 081
  Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 080/080/075
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  016/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  018/026-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%15%10%
Minor storm15%01%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm30%20%10%

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