Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 October 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 13/0901Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 13/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 13/1529Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 610 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (14 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (15 Oct) and unsettled levels on day three (16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 095
  Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  026/036
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  025/060-020/025-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm30%05%05%
Major-severe storm25%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%30%25%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/10/26Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:263
Current stretch spotless days:37

This day in history*

Solar flares
12014C8.6
22014C8.1
32001C6.8
42001C6.3
52014C6.2
ApG
1200329G1
2201624G1
3200018
4201414
5199914
*since 1994

Social networks