Viewing archive of Monday, 6 June 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jun 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 694 km/s at 06/0322Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/0007Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/0006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 801 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jun 079
  Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun 080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        06 Jun 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  023/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jun  021/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  009/010-005/006-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm25%15%10%

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