Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 May 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 21/1400Z from Region 2546 (S07W21). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 21/0520Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/0541Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 21/0630Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 612 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 May) and quiet levels on day three (24 May).
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 May 098
  Predicted   22 May-24 May 095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        21 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 May  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 May  013/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May  016/018-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm20%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm50%30%15%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/28M9.7
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X2.45
22014X1.45
32023X1.2
42001M3.13
52001M3
ApG
1199928G2
2200337G1
3201328G1
4200122G1
5199820G1
*since 1994

Social networks