Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 May 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/0408Z from just beyond the western limb. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 17/0642Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/0303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/0840Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1372 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 May), quiet to active levels on day two (19 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (20 May).
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 May 103
  Predicted   18 May-20 May 105/105/108
  90 Day Mean        17 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  015/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 May  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  008/008-014/016-017/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm05%20%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm35%50%60%

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