Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 May 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 15/0409Z from Region 2543 (S05W80). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 15/1714Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 14/2149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 14/2132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1152 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 May), quiet to active levels on day two (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 May). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16 May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton60%30%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 108
  Predicted   16 May-18 May 105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        15 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  011/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  017/023-011/012-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%20%
Minor storm25%20%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm60%55%25%

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