Viewing archive of Monday, 9 May 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 767 km/s at 09/0932Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 08/2310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16412 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 May), quiet to active levels on day two (11 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 May).
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 May 089
  Predicted   10 May-12 May 090/090/092
  90 Day Mean        09 May 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  032/060
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 May  021/034
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  015/022-013/014-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm55%45%30%

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