Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 May 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/2248Z from Region 2542 (N09E70). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May,
07 May, 08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 04/2128Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/0827Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4145 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 May), quiet to active levels on day
two (07 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (08 May).
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 087 Predicted 06 May-08 May 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 05 May 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 006/003-010/004-014/004
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 35% | 40% |
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