Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 May 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (04 May) and likely to be low on days two and three (05 May, 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 03/0618Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4006 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 May 090
  Predicted   04 May-06 May 095/105/110
  90 Day Mean        03 May 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  026/031
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 May  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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