Viewing archive of Monday, 18 April 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 18/0029Z from Region 2529 (N10W67). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (19 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (20 Apr) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 18/0051Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 18/0112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/0744Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 207 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (21 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (19 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
Class M 20%10%01%
Class X 05%01%01%
Proton15%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Apr 095
  Predicted    19 Apr-21 Apr 095/090/088
  90 Day Mean        18 Apr 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  017/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  007/009
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  010/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%15%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%20%20%
Major-severe storm 45%25%20%

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