Viewing archive of Monday, 14 March 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 14/1931Z. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 14/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at 14/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (15 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (16 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 093
  Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  022/032-021/028-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm25%30%15%
Major-severe storm10%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm65%70%55%

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