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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 09/2200Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3078 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Mar 095
  Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  006/005-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm20%25%20%

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