Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 March 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
09/1250Z from Region 2519 (N06E76). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Mar,
11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 09/0004Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/1408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6761 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Mar, 11 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (12 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 097 Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 09 Mar 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
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