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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 09/1250Z from Region 2519 (N06E76). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 09/0004Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/1408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6761 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Mar, 11 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Mar 097
  Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  007/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  006/005-006/005-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%25%

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