Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 February 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/2140Z from Region 2497 (N12W62). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and
expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on day three
(19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 669 km/s at 16/2022Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 16/1010Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 16/0847Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (19 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (17 Feb) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two (18 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 104 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 100/095/090 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 027/041 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 017/022-014/014-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 40% | 30% |
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