Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 February 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/1524Z from Region 2497 (N12W35). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb,
16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
448 km/s at 13/1859Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 12/2239Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 13/0508Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (14 Feb, 15
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Feb). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Feb,
15 Feb, 16 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 110 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 011/012-019/027-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 60% | 30% |
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