Viewing archive of Friday, 12 February 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 12/1047Z from Region 2497 (N13W19). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 375 km/s at 12/0249Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 12/1938Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 12/0752Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Feb 112
  Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 109/107/107
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  012/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  010/010-011/012-019/027

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%40%
Minor storm05%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%50%60%

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