Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 December 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
29/1032Z from Region 2473 (S21W33). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at
29/0217Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/2334Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2023Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 29/0150Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 2442 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (30 Dec), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (01 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 105 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 018/040-022/028-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 90% | 70% | 45% |
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