Viewing archive of Friday, 11 December 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 11/1716Z from Region 2465 (S05E09). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 702 km/s at 11/0207Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/2157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6095 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Dec, 13 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Dec 114
  Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec 115/115/120
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  018/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  018/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  013/016-011/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm35%30%25%
Major-severe storm30%20%20%

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