Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 December 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 08/1914Z from Region 2463 (S09E06). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 712 km/s at 07/2354Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0028Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0037Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8733 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Dec), active to minor storm levels on day two (10 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Dec 111
  Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        08 Dec 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  016/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Dec  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  012/016-021/032-021/028

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm40%55%50%

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